الرئيسية
Muslim Brotherhood members distribute fliers to voters
outside a polling station in Cairo's Manial neighbourhood on November
28.(AFP/File/Mahmud Hams)
By Jailan Zayan, AFP
CAIRO (AFP) - Egypt's long-banned Muslim Brotherhood is on
the verge of gaining the political legitimacy it has sought for decades,
but as it steps out of the shadows its credibility will be on the line,
analysts say.
Ten months after the end of Hosni Mubarak's 30
years of autocratic rule, Egyptians went to the polls this week in the
first phase of multi-stage elections to create a new parliament.
Ahead
of preliminary results later Thursday for the third of districts which
have already voted, the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP)
said it was in the lead with more than 40 percent of ballots.
"This
is an excellent chance to test the group," said Rabab al-Mahdi,
professor of political science at the American University in Cairo.
"For
years they have been making claims -- such as the fact that freedom and
religion can be compatible -- without being held accountable," she told
AFP.
The Brotherhood has been officially banned since the 1950s,
but it counts hundreds of thousands of members and operates a vast
network of social and religious outreach programmes across the country.
Its
FJP party says it strives for a "civil state, defined as a non-military
non-religious state... that respects human rights," according to its
political programme.
Leaders have repeatedly stressed their
commitment to multi-party democracy and inclusiveness and pledged to
ensure freedoms -- in stark contrast to other hardline Islamist leaders
who are also expected to do well in the elections.
But if it does
emerge as the biggest party in the new parliament -- final results for
the lower house are expected in January -- its credibility will
evaporate if it accepts to be part of a toothless assembly, observers
say.
Many voters are concerned that the military rulers in charge
since the fall of Mubarak are looking to consolidate their influence
and are unwilling to hand over real power to the new civilian leaders.
"They
will have to fight for the power of parliament which stands more chance
of success with alliances with the house's liberals," Mahdi said.
As
capitalists, the FJP "will have more in common economically with
liberals than it would with other Islamist forces," she told AFP.
It
remains unclear how the new parliament will function and how much power
it will be given by Supreme Council of Armed Forces headed by Field
Marshal Hussein Tantawi, Mubarak's former defence minister.
The
movement, once linked to political assassinations but now seen as a
moderate force, said it expected to be asked to form a new interim
government if it emerges as the biggest power in parliament.
"The future government is supposed to represent the people," spokesman Mahmud Ghozlan told AFP ahead of the start of voting.
Once
in power, the FJP will have to reassure liberal Egyptians of its
commitment to civil liberties, while wrestling control from the military
whose economic interests are seen as reducing its desire for genuine
reform.
Its treatment of the 8.0-million-strong minority Christian population will also be a test of its rhetoric of tolerance.
The
military -- which owns numerous businesses and vast swathes of land --
will fight for its privileges and look to retain some degree of power,
argues Joshua Stacher, a political scientist at Kent State University.
"The power structure will remain until the Egyptian military is ripped out of the economy," he said.
Ahead
of the elections, the army had sought to impose a set of
supra-constitutional principles which would give it final say on all
military related legislation and keep its budget shielded from public
scrutiny.
The Muslim Brotherhood slammed the proposals as "undemocratic."
But
in a country where politics and economic growth are fused into one
engine, the FJP could find itself quickly stunted and unable to deliver
social justice and a good economy -- the main demands of the January
uprising.