الرئيسية
Economic growth is likely to slow in most of the Gulf's wealthy oil
exporters next year but governments will remain able to spend to counter
the impact of any global slump, a Reuters poll of analysts showed
yesterday.
The euro zone debt crisis and signs of slowing growth
in China have darkened the outlook for the Gulf, making it harder for
companies to raise funds from bank lending and bond issuance, and
keeping real estate and equity prices under downward pressure in many
countries.
In contrast to much of the rest of the world, however,
the Gulf states still have ample fiscal reserves which they can use to
stimulate their economies. They ramped up government spending early this
year to protect social stability during the Arab Spring uprisings in
the Middle East and North Africa, and are now expected to keep spending
high to maintain growth.
In the UAE, the second largest Arab
economy, GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% next year from 3.9% in
2011, according to the latest poll, conducted in the past two weeks.
Three months ago, analysts predicted 3.8% growth next year.
Growth
is slowest in the tiny kingdom of Bahrain, the only GCC state to suffer
major social unrest this year. But its economy has been recovering
gradually since the second quarter of 2011 and is projected to
accelerate to 3.0% next year.
Gulf economies were hit hard by the
75% plunge in the global oil price during 2008 and remain vulnerable to
any repeat if the Western world falls back into recession. But
analysts, noting oil held up well this year despite the worsening euro
zone crisis, think a similar dive is very unlikely.
exporters next year but governments will remain able to spend to counter
the impact of any global slump, a Reuters poll of analysts showed
yesterday.
The euro zone debt crisis and signs of slowing growth
in China have darkened the outlook for the Gulf, making it harder for
companies to raise funds from bank lending and bond issuance, and
keeping real estate and equity prices under downward pressure in many
countries.
In contrast to much of the rest of the world, however,
the Gulf states still have ample fiscal reserves which they can use to
stimulate their economies. They ramped up government spending early this
year to protect social stability during the Arab Spring uprisings in
the Middle East and North Africa, and are now expected to keep spending
high to maintain growth.
In the UAE, the second largest Arab
economy, GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% next year from 3.9% in
2011, according to the latest poll, conducted in the past two weeks.
Three months ago, analysts predicted 3.8% growth next year.
Growth
is slowest in the tiny kingdom of Bahrain, the only GCC state to suffer
major social unrest this year. But its economy has been recovering
gradually since the second quarter of 2011 and is projected to
accelerate to 3.0% next year.
Gulf economies were hit hard by the
75% plunge in the global oil price during 2008 and remain vulnerable to
any repeat if the Western world falls back into recession. But
analysts, noting oil held up well this year despite the worsening euro
zone crisis, think a similar dive is very unlikely.