الرئيسية
BAGHDAD, Dec 22 (Reuters) - With U.S. troops gone, can
Iraq withstand the political infighting, sectarian violence and
struggles for land and oil that threaten to pull it apart?
It has been a disastrous few days. Accused by the Shi'ite
prime minister of running death squads, the Sunni vice president
has taken refuge in the Kurdish north, exploiting the central
government's lack of authority in the oil-producing region.
The power-sharing government in Baghdad is in disarray, with
Sunnis reinforced in their suspicions that Shi'ite Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki is bent on sidelining them.
And the bombers are back: at least 63 people were killed and
194 wounded on Thursday in more than 10 explosions across
Baghdad, mostly targeting Shi'ite districts.
Iraqi and foreign analysts say talk of the country breaking
up looks premature. But the risks would increase sharply if
there were major and prolonged sectarian violence, and if Iraq's
neighbours, Shi'ite power Iran and Sunni Gulf states, intervened
in support of breakaway movements.
The key question mark is neighbouring Syria: Shi'ite leaders
worry Syria's turmoil will spill over the border, encouraging
protests in the western Sunni provinces, especially if hardline
Sunnis replace President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.
Maliki's Shi'ite-led government is close to Iran, and the
fall of Tehran's ally Assad could shift the regional power
balance.
"The main danger Iraq faces with Syria is for its unity,"
said a senior Iraqi Shi'ite lawmaker. "Many powers see dividing
Iraq as in their favour. If you encourage provinces on the
borders, it is like cutting the cake. The question of Iraq's
unity is still not resolved."
BACK FROM THE BRINK
Iraq has weathered worse crises: with the help of a U.S.
troop surge, it pulled itself back from the brink of civil war
after intercommunal violence, unleashed by the U.S.-led invasion
in 2003, reached a peak in 2006-7.
Demands for regional power have simmered for years in a
country whose modern borders were drawn up in 1920 by the League
of Nations, pulling Sunnis, Shi'ites, Kurds and Turkmen into a
new nation.
Sunnis suspect Maliki of trying to cement Shi'ite control
after the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein, a Sunni. Those fears
will be compounded by the terrorism charges against Vice
President Tareq al-Hashemi, which he rejects, and by Maliki's
request to parliament to remove the Sunni deputy prime minister,
Saleh al-Mutlaq.
A senior Obama administration official stressed that Iraq's
factions had so far addressed their differences peacefully,
rather than resorting to violence, and dismissed the idea
Maliki's moves were linked to the U.S. troop withdrawal that was
completed on Sunday.
"We actually think they reflect long-standing, unresolved
political dynamics that have caused crisis in the past, even the
recent past, without plunging the country into turmoil," he
said.
But by fleeing to Kurdistan, Hashemi has scratched another
sore - the festering dispute between the Kurds and the central
Baghdad government over territory and oil.
Kurdish sources said tensions with Baghdad were likely to
rise. But they believed the consequences would be much worse -
between Sunnis and Shi'ites and Kurds and Sunnis, especially in
disputed areas - if the fugitive vice president were handed
over and tried in Baghdad.
U.S. troops had acted as a buffer in the north, working on
joint patrols with the Iraqi national army and Kurdish Peshmerga
forces, especially over who controls hotspots like the oil city
of Kirkuk whose oilfields represent nearly a quarter of Iraq's
oil exports or around 460,000 barrels per day.
Rival factions could take advantage of a perceived vacuum to
seek more control of areas that are under dispute.
"These areas in northern Iraq are perhaps...the ones in
which U.S. troops have played their most important role over the
last 1-1/2 years," said Ali al-Saffar, an analyst with the
Economist Intelligence Unit.
"The Kurds have been vocal in their demands to annex some
areas of Diyala and Nineveh. Any Arab backlash would put the
government in an extremely precarious situation."
Ignoring warnings from Baghdad, Kurdistan has pushed ahead
with deals with U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil, the first
major explorer to test the waters by signing with the regional
government. Baghdad says the deals are illegal.
DIFFICULT BALANCE
For Maliki, it is a tricky balance. Taking a hard line with
Exxon risks jeopardising its investments in the south of the
country, but allowing the Kurds to win may encourage demands
from other regions seeking autonomy.
These have increased over the past year, as frustration
rises with a government that has failed to deliver basic
services, electricity and food rations.
Iraq's constitution allows provinces to seek more autonomy
and control over their finances, subject to a public referendum
and parliamentary approval.
Southern oil-hub Basra presented its demand more than a year
ago. Now provincial officials are trying to cancel a $17 billion
Shell gas deal as a way to break away from the control
of the central government and solve its shortages of housing and
power.
Such a move could erode Baghdad's control over revenues from
major oilfields in the predominantly Shi'ite south, where Iran's
influence is stronger.
"Baghdad and the government there do not
know what is happening in Basra - there are no
services here," Hussein Faydh, a civil servant. "We have all the
oil and we have nothing in return."
Iraq withstand the political infighting, sectarian violence and
struggles for land and oil that threaten to pull it apart?
It has been a disastrous few days. Accused by the Shi'ite
prime minister of running death squads, the Sunni vice president
has taken refuge in the Kurdish north, exploiting the central
government's lack of authority in the oil-producing region.
The power-sharing government in Baghdad is in disarray, with
Sunnis reinforced in their suspicions that Shi'ite Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki is bent on sidelining them.
And the bombers are back: at least 63 people were killed and
194 wounded on Thursday in more than 10 explosions across
Baghdad, mostly targeting Shi'ite districts.
Iraqi and foreign analysts say talk of the country breaking
up looks premature. But the risks would increase sharply if
there were major and prolonged sectarian violence, and if Iraq's
neighbours, Shi'ite power Iran and Sunni Gulf states, intervened
in support of breakaway movements.
The key question mark is neighbouring Syria: Shi'ite leaders
worry Syria's turmoil will spill over the border, encouraging
protests in the western Sunni provinces, especially if hardline
Sunnis replace President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.
Maliki's Shi'ite-led government is close to Iran, and the
fall of Tehran's ally Assad could shift the regional power
balance.
"The main danger Iraq faces with Syria is for its unity,"
said a senior Iraqi Shi'ite lawmaker. "Many powers see dividing
Iraq as in their favour. If you encourage provinces on the
borders, it is like cutting the cake. The question of Iraq's
unity is still not resolved."
BACK FROM THE BRINK
Iraq has weathered worse crises: with the help of a U.S.
troop surge, it pulled itself back from the brink of civil war
after intercommunal violence, unleashed by the U.S.-led invasion
in 2003, reached a peak in 2006-7.
Demands for regional power have simmered for years in a
country whose modern borders were drawn up in 1920 by the League
of Nations, pulling Sunnis, Shi'ites, Kurds and Turkmen into a
new nation.
Sunnis suspect Maliki of trying to cement Shi'ite control
after the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein, a Sunni. Those fears
will be compounded by the terrorism charges against Vice
President Tareq al-Hashemi, which he rejects, and by Maliki's
request to parliament to remove the Sunni deputy prime minister,
Saleh al-Mutlaq.
A senior Obama administration official stressed that Iraq's
factions had so far addressed their differences peacefully,
rather than resorting to violence, and dismissed the idea
Maliki's moves were linked to the U.S. troop withdrawal that was
completed on Sunday.
"We actually think they reflect long-standing, unresolved
political dynamics that have caused crisis in the past, even the
recent past, without plunging the country into turmoil," he
said.
But by fleeing to Kurdistan, Hashemi has scratched another
sore - the festering dispute between the Kurds and the central
Baghdad government over territory and oil.
Kurdish sources said tensions with Baghdad were likely to
rise. But they believed the consequences would be much worse -
between Sunnis and Shi'ites and Kurds and Sunnis, especially in
disputed areas - if the fugitive vice president were handed
over and tried in Baghdad.
U.S. troops had acted as a buffer in the north, working on
joint patrols with the Iraqi national army and Kurdish Peshmerga
forces, especially over who controls hotspots like the oil city
of Kirkuk whose oilfields represent nearly a quarter of Iraq's
oil exports or around 460,000 barrels per day.
Rival factions could take advantage of a perceived vacuum to
seek more control of areas that are under dispute.
"These areas in northern Iraq are perhaps...the ones in
which U.S. troops have played their most important role over the
last 1-1/2 years," said Ali al-Saffar, an analyst with the
Economist Intelligence Unit.
"The Kurds have been vocal in their demands to annex some
areas of Diyala and Nineveh. Any Arab backlash would put the
government in an extremely precarious situation."
Ignoring warnings from Baghdad, Kurdistan has pushed ahead
with deals with U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil, the first
major explorer to test the waters by signing with the regional
government. Baghdad says the deals are illegal.
DIFFICULT BALANCE
For Maliki, it is a tricky balance. Taking a hard line with
Exxon risks jeopardising its investments in the south of the
country, but allowing the Kurds to win may encourage demands
from other regions seeking autonomy.
These have increased over the past year, as frustration
rises with a government that has failed to deliver basic
services, electricity and food rations.
Iraq's constitution allows provinces to seek more autonomy
and control over their finances, subject to a public referendum
and parliamentary approval.
Southern oil-hub Basra presented its demand more than a year
ago. Now provincial officials are trying to cancel a $17 billion
Shell gas deal as a way to break away from the control
of the central government and solve its shortages of housing and
power.
Such a move could erode Baghdad's control over revenues from
major oilfields in the predominantly Shi'ite south, where Iran's
influence is stronger.
"Baghdad and the government there do not
know what is happening in Basra - there are no
services here," Hussein Faydh, a civil servant. "We have all the
oil and we have nothing in return."