الرئيسية
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iran is unlikely to move toward
building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the
capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, a draft report by the
Institute for Science and International Security said on Wednesday.
The report by the institute founded by nuclear expert David Albright
offered a more temperate view of Iran's nuclear program than some of the
heated rhetoric that has surfaced since the United States and its
allies stepped up sanctions on Tehran.
"Iran is unlikely to decide to dash toward making nuclear weapons as
long as its uranium enrichment capability remains as limited as it is
today," the report said.
The United States and Iran are engaged in a war of words over
sanctions, with Iran threatening to retaliate by blocking oil shipping
traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States said it would
not allow that to happen.
The escalating rhetoric and tensions have led to concerns about the
potential for missteps between the adversaries that might spiral into a
military confrontation that neither wants.
But the report, financed by a grant from the United States Institute
of Peace, said Iran had not made a decision to build a nuclear bomb. The
USIP is an independent, non-partisan center created by the U.S.
Congress in 1984 that receives federal government funding.
"Iran is unlikely to break out in 2012, in great part because it is
deterred from doing so," said the ISIS report, which has not yet been
publicly released.
The report turns down the temperature, saying that sanctions and the
fear of a military strike by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities have
worked as a deterrent.
The institute has advised U.S. and foreign governments about Iran's
nuclear capabilities and Albright is considered a respected expert on
the issue. The report tracks closely with what is known of official U.S.
government assessments.
U.S. officials say Iran has not made the decision to build a nuclear
weapon and that Iranian leaders haven't made the decision because they
have to weigh the cost and benefits of building a nuclear weapon.
Much of what the Iranians are doing with their nuclear program has
civilian uses, but they are keeping their options open, which
significantly adds to the air of ambiguity, U.S. officials told Reuters
on condition of anonymity.
Some conservative and Israeli analysts in the past have challenged
these types of assessments, asserting that Iranian nuclear efforts are
sufficiently advanced that they could build a bomb in a year or less.
But according to the institute's report: "Although Iran is engaged in
nuclear hedging, no evidence has emerged that the regime has decided to
build nuclear weapons."
"Such a decision may be unlikely to occur until Iran is first able to
augment its enrichment capability to a point where it would have the
ability to make weapon-grade uranium quickly and secretly," the report
obtained by Reuters said.
It added that despite a report last November by the United Nations'
International Atomic Energy Agency alleging that Iran had made
significant progress on nuclear weaponization, "Iran's essential
challenge remains developing a secure capability to make enough
weapon-grade uranium, likely for at least several nuclear weapons."
building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the
capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, a draft report by the
Institute for Science and International Security said on Wednesday.
The report by the institute founded by nuclear expert David Albright
offered a more temperate view of Iran's nuclear program than some of the
heated rhetoric that has surfaced since the United States and its
allies stepped up sanctions on Tehran.
"Iran is unlikely to decide to dash toward making nuclear weapons as
long as its uranium enrichment capability remains as limited as it is
today," the report said.
The United States and Iran are engaged in a war of words over
sanctions, with Iran threatening to retaliate by blocking oil shipping
traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States said it would
not allow that to happen.
The escalating rhetoric and tensions have led to concerns about the
potential for missteps between the adversaries that might spiral into a
military confrontation that neither wants.
But the report, financed by a grant from the United States Institute
of Peace, said Iran had not made a decision to build a nuclear bomb. The
USIP is an independent, non-partisan center created by the U.S.
Congress in 1984 that receives federal government funding.
"Iran is unlikely to break out in 2012, in great part because it is
deterred from doing so," said the ISIS report, which has not yet been
publicly released.
The report turns down the temperature, saying that sanctions and the
fear of a military strike by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities have
worked as a deterrent.
The institute has advised U.S. and foreign governments about Iran's
nuclear capabilities and Albright is considered a respected expert on
the issue. The report tracks closely with what is known of official U.S.
government assessments.
U.S. officials say Iran has not made the decision to build a nuclear
weapon and that Iranian leaders haven't made the decision because they
have to weigh the cost and benefits of building a nuclear weapon.
Much of what the Iranians are doing with their nuclear program has
civilian uses, but they are keeping their options open, which
significantly adds to the air of ambiguity, U.S. officials told Reuters
on condition of anonymity.
Some conservative and Israeli analysts in the past have challenged
these types of assessments, asserting that Iranian nuclear efforts are
sufficiently advanced that they could build a bomb in a year or less.
But according to the institute's report: "Although Iran is engaged in
nuclear hedging, no evidence has emerged that the regime has decided to
build nuclear weapons."
"Such a decision may be unlikely to occur until Iran is first able to
augment its enrichment capability to a point where it would have the
ability to make weapon-grade uranium quickly and secretly," the report
obtained by Reuters said.
It added that despite a report last November by the United Nations'
International Atomic Energy Agency alleging that Iran had made
significant progress on nuclear weaponization, "Iran's essential
challenge remains developing a secure capability to make enough
weapon-grade uranium, likely for at least several nuclear weapons."