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Israel leader sets Likud Party primary for January

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JERUSALEM
(AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called a snap
leadership primary in his Likud Party Monday, raising the possibility of
an early general election next year.
The gambit reflected the
confidence of a leader who — while at loggerheads with the Palestinians,
a region in turmoil and much of the world — is riding high, for now, at
home. Polls show Likud running ahead of all other parties and Netanyahu
to be the public's top choice for prime minister.
Netanyahu had
to weather a summer of protests over rising living costs, but in recent
months he has been buoyed by a perceived strong stance against
Palestinian efforts to gain recognition as a state at the United Nations
and by success in securing the release of a captive Israeli soldier in a
lopsided prisoner swap with militants.
Under these circumstances he seems assured of victory in the Jan. 31 primary, which comes a year ahead of schedule.
Netanyahu,
who was also prime minister from 1996-1999, has been in office for two
and a half years and general elections must be held by November 2013.
But
in the tumultuous world of Israeli politics, coalition governments
rarely last their full terms. Netanyahu's nationalist-dominated
coalition could crumble in the coming months due to a number of factors,
from deadlock in Mideast peace efforts to scandals threatening two
major coalition partners.
Netanyahu told Likud lawmakers Monday
that holding the Likud vote in less than two months will save the party
money in a shortened campaign and allow it to face events with a united
front. "It is important that ... we will continue to be ready to deal
with the great challenges we are facing," he said.
Netanyahu began
his term by dropping his opposition to Palestinian statehood in what
amounted to a startling about-face for a politician who built his career
on standing firm in the face of Palestinian demands.
But efforts
at relaunching peace talks never seriously took off, and Netanyahu has
clashed with the international community over his insistence on
continued Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank.
Although
that position is controversial among Israelis, Netanyahu has won points
with the public by presiding over a period devoid of major violence —
and by taking a tough stance against Iran's nuclear ambitions.
In such a climate, Netanyahu is unlikely to face a serious challenge.
His top internal rival, Cabinet Minister Silvan Shalom, expressed outrage over the announced primary vote.
"His
main reason for doing this is to catch his potential opponents with
their pants down," said Avraham Diskin, a political scientist at
Jerusalem's Hebrew University. "He's taking advantage of an
opportunity."
Culture Minister Limor Livnat, a Likud ally of Netanyahu's, said there were no plans for an early general election.
But
that may be out of Netanyahu's hands. In coming weeks, his government
faces a potential damning report of its handling of a deadly forest fire
a year ago that may force the resignation of his interior minister, Eli
Yishai. That could lead Yishai's powerful Shas party to bolt the
coalition.
And a decision is also expected soon on whether Foreign
Minister Avigdor Lieberman will be indicted on corruption charges. That
too could jeopardize Netanyahu's government, if Lieberman then pulls
his Yisrael Beiteinu out of the coalition.
The attorney general's
office said a hearing in which lieberman is to defend himself against
corruption allegations is tentatively set for Dec. 18. A final decision
on an indictment would follow, though it is unclear when.
Yisrael
Beiteinu has 15 seats and Shas has 11. The loss of either party would
rob Netanyahu of a majority in the 120-seat parliament.
Netanyahu
also faces potential rebellion in his right-wing flank if he carries out
the planned March evacuation of an illegally built settlement outpost
in the West Bank.
An earlier general election could catch the main
opposition Kadima Party off balance. Its leader, former Foreign
Minister Tzipi Livni, is expected to face a challenge from Shaul Mofaz, a
retired military chief who chairs parliament's defense and foreign
affairs committee.
Also in the mix is the Labor Party, which
recently elected as its head Shelly Yachimovich, a former journalist
whose ascent appears to have rejuvenated the once-dominant grouping.
Polls currently show the Likud to be well ahead of all other challengers.

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