الرئيسية
HONG KONG (AP) — Economic growth in East Asia will continue to wane
in 2012 as sovereign debt problems in Europe and an anemic U.S. economy
raise the risk of a deep global downturn, the Asian Development Bank
said Tuesday.
The ADB cut its 2012 growth forecast for 14 East
Asian economies excluding Japan to 7.2 percent from the 7.5 percent
predicted in September. In a worst-case scenario — in which the U.S. and
Europe slow as much as they did in the 2008-2009 global crisis — East
Asia would grow only 5.4 percent in 2012, the development lender said.
The ADB also lowered its 2011 forecast slightly to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent.
The
Manila-based lender said its "cautiously optimistic" outlook for the
region faces "much greater downside risks than just a few months ago."
Those
risks include a deep recession in both the Europe and the U.S., rising
protectionism and persistent or resurgent inflation.
"The recovery
in advanced economies lost steam this year and they will continue to
struggle," the report said. "While U.S. economic growth could strengthen
somewhat, the eurozone will likely fall into either a brief recession
or a more severe long-term downturn."
Emerging Asian economies are
"certainly not immune" to a major slowdown in advanced economies, which
would hurt their economic growth and pose "significant policy
challenges," it said.
Many developing Asian countries including
China are dependent on economic growth in the U.S. and Europe, which are
major markets for the toys, clothing and electronics churned out by the
region's countless factories.
Safeguarding the region's robust
growth against another global crisis is the biggest challenge, said the
report, which urged policymakers to increase regional trade and
financial ties and expand links with other emerging economies to reduce
their dependence on the U.S. and Europe.
The report covers China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and 10 Southeast Asian countries
in 2012 as sovereign debt problems in Europe and an anemic U.S. economy
raise the risk of a deep global downturn, the Asian Development Bank
said Tuesday.
The ADB cut its 2012 growth forecast for 14 East
Asian economies excluding Japan to 7.2 percent from the 7.5 percent
predicted in September. In a worst-case scenario — in which the U.S. and
Europe slow as much as they did in the 2008-2009 global crisis — East
Asia would grow only 5.4 percent in 2012, the development lender said.
The ADB also lowered its 2011 forecast slightly to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent.
The
Manila-based lender said its "cautiously optimistic" outlook for the
region faces "much greater downside risks than just a few months ago."
Those
risks include a deep recession in both the Europe and the U.S., rising
protectionism and persistent or resurgent inflation.
"The recovery
in advanced economies lost steam this year and they will continue to
struggle," the report said. "While U.S. economic growth could strengthen
somewhat, the eurozone will likely fall into either a brief recession
or a more severe long-term downturn."
Emerging Asian economies are
"certainly not immune" to a major slowdown in advanced economies, which
would hurt their economic growth and pose "significant policy
challenges," it said.
Many developing Asian countries including
China are dependent on economic growth in the U.S. and Europe, which are
major markets for the toys, clothing and electronics churned out by the
region's countless factories.
Safeguarding the region's robust
growth against another global crisis is the biggest challenge, said the
report, which urged policymakers to increase regional trade and
financial ties and expand links with other emerging economies to reduce
their dependence on the U.S. and Europe.
The report covers China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and 10 Southeast Asian countries